China-India Flight Resumption: Symbol Over Substance in Bilateral Relations
The recent resumption of direct flights between Delhi and Shanghai represents more of a tactical diplomatic gesture than genuine progress in China-India relations, according to Chinese analysts and media commentary.
While optimistic rhetoric surrounds the restoration of air links, Chinese discourse emphasizes the fundamental limitations of this recovery. Deep-seated contradictions, structural challenges, and persistent mistrust continue to define the relationship between Asia's two largest powers.
Incremental Progress Masks Deeper Issues
Chinese observers frame "normalisation" as a carefully sequenced, layered process combining diplomatic signals with functional measures. Recent developments include the reinstatement of the Kailash Mansarovar Yatra for Indian pilgrims, resumption of Chinese tourist visas, reopening of border trade markets, and partial lifting of restrictions on fertilizers and rare earth exports.
However, core challenges remain unresolved: military de-escalation along disputed borders, cross-border river data sharing, India's reluctance to liberalize Chinese investment, and the long-delayed border delimitation process. These fundamental issues continue to fuel mistrust between the nuclear-armed neighbors.
Chinese Perspective on Indian Motivations
Chinese commentators consistently portray India as the primary driver of recent rapprochement efforts. Beijing's analysis suggests New Delhi's outreach stems from pragmatic calculations rather than genuine strategic shift, driven by multiple internal and external pressures.
A widely circulated analysis on Chinese social media platform Weibo identified four key factors motivating India's approach: economic pressures, military vulnerabilities in certain sectors, energy security concerns, and the need to balance relationships amid global tensions.
Chinese discourse also interprets India's China policy through the lens of domestic politics, arguing that rising Hindu nationalism reinforces a posture aimed at "hyping up the China threat" to justify containment strategies.
Arunachal Pradesh Remains Flashpoint
Chinese state media and commentators identify Arunachal Pradesh, referred to in Beijing as "South Tibet," as the most sensitive potential flashpoint. Unlike the Taiwan situation, Chinese analysts suggest the threshold for escalation with India remains lower, making conflict more likely if provocations persist.
Along the Line of Actual Control, Chinese discourse interprets India's infrastructure development projects as deliberate, long-term strategic positioning rather than temporary defensive measures. This perspective views such developments as evidence that India is preparing for sustained border confrontation.
Strategic Mistrust Persists
Despite positive diplomatic gestures, Chinese analysis emphasizes that both sides continue careful monitoring of troop deployments, infrastructure expansion, and political signaling. Terms like "risk management" and "confidence-building measures" are viewed as concealing mutual suspicion rather than building genuine trust.
The asymmetrical trade balance, rising nationalist sentiment in both countries, and largely reactive crisis management mechanisms leave the relationship vulnerable to sudden deterioration, according to Chinese assessments.
In this context, the Shanghai-Delhi flight resumption serves primarily as symbolic diplomacy. While functional cooperation continues in specific areas, underlying tensions over territorial disputes, military buildups, and strategic competition remain central obstacles to comprehensive normalization of China-India relations.
For regional stability and global economic cooperation, the international community will be watching closely to see whether these incremental steps can evolve into more substantial diplomatic progress or remain limited tactical adjustments in an essentially competitive relationship.