Botswana's 2026 foot-and-mouth disease outbreak could erase between 0.8 and 1 percent of national GDP, agricultural economist Patrick Malope has estimated, as government spending on containment reaches P97 million and premium beef markets remain closed to local producers.
According to The Business Weekly & Review, which first reported the estimate on 23 October 2026, the loss of access to high-value markets in the European Union and Norway threatens export earnings, depresses cattle prices and raises costs for farmers and feedlot operators forced to keep animals they would otherwise have sold.
Why premium markets matter so much
Livestock contributes roughly 1.2 percent of national GDP, based on Malope's calculation that agriculture accounts for 2 percent of GDP and livestock represents 60 percent of that share. The damage spreads well beyond lost export receipts to restricted domestic sales, lower live-cattle prices and the mounting cost of holding animals on farms and in feedlots.
�In percentage terms, probably a loss of about 1 percent of GDP,� Malope said, putting the likely impact between 0.8 and 1 percent given the weight of the beef sector.
Before the outbreak, the Botswana Meat Commission operated a dual-pricing model. Cattle slaughtered for the domestic market and non-EU destinations fetched up to P41 per kilogramme of cold dressed weight, while EU-bound beef attracted up to P58 per kilogramme. Without EU access, registered producers face an immediate revenue loss of roughly P9 per kilogramme, and prices in alternative markets remain uncertain.
�It will take longer for those areas where the disease was discovered to be green again and be able to export to the EU,� Malope said. �Thus, it will really depend on the satisfaction of the importing countries and other markets such as South Africa.�
Malope warned that restrictions lasting 12 to 24 months could severely weaken the BMC's capacity to buy cattle. Botswana's domestic market cannot absorb the full volume of cattle produced locally, which makes exports essential to the industry's survival. Without premium returns, the commission's payments to producers could deteriorate and discourage cattle production altogether.
What government containment has achieved
The government says it has made progress through vaccination, surveillance and the construction of containment fences, while working to restore access to international markets.
In the North East, the outbreak covering Zones 3C-Mitengwe and 6B has been officially closed after a three-round vaccination campaign covering approximately 35,000 cattle. The last recorded case there was on 16 March 2026. A further 75,000 cattle along the Zimbabwean border were vaccinated to build a protective buffer of herd immunity.
In Kgatleng, more than 90,000 cattle have received primary vaccinations, with clinical cases contained within Mochudi East, Oodi and the Dikwididi extension. In the southern containment zone, where the index case was recorded on 1 April 2026 at Ramatlabama Artificial Insemination, the last case in the extended zone was reported on 12 September.
A total of 167,238 cattle have been vaccinated within the extended containment zone, including 23,284 at Banyana Farms in Zone 13 and 143,954 in Zone 11. A second booster campaign in Phitshane-Molopo-Mabule had reached 75 percent completion, with 16,132 of 21,544 targeted cattle vaccinated ahead of its scheduled conclusion on 25 October 2026.
Containment infrastructure now includes a 514-kilometre fence, comprising 266 kilometres of newly constructed double fencing and 248 kilometres of maintained existing drift and road fences. Work continues on the second fence line, with 191 kilometres of bush clearing and 140 kilometres of grading completed.
The fiscal burden falls on taxpayers
The P97 million committed to controlling the outbreak adds pressure to an already strained agricultural budget. Agriculture Minister Edwin Dikoloti said the response had placed considerable pressure on his ministry's budget, limiting resources for other agricultural development initiatives.
Malope cautioned that prolonged containment would continue to weigh on public finances through repeated vaccination campaigns, surveillance staff deployment and fence maintenance. The Botswana Gazette reports that the government has simultaneously raised the live cattle export levy from P30 to P300 per head, a 900 percent increase, landing on farmers already struggling with the economic fallout of the disease.
Slaughter resumes, but regional trade faces resistance
The BMC resumed slaughtering cattle from fenced farms and quarantines within the containment zone on 25 September, after the last pre-suspension slaughter on 1 April. By 16 October, 1,239 cattle had been slaughtered. Individual livestock slaughter is to be permitted across all zones, subject to conditions determined by the prevailing disease situation.
Government has also approved a renewed dispensation allowing exports of live cattle and meat products, as allAfrica reports, part of wider efforts to restore confidence in the livestock industry and protect the national herd. The previous dispensation, introduced in 2019 as a temporary measure and renewed four times, ended on 30 April 2025 after local producers exported more than 551,570 cattle, mostly to South Africa and Namibia.
Regional trade, however, faces resistance. South African Agriculture Minister Willie Aucamp said Pretoria has submitted proposed biosecurity protocols to Botswana, potentially paving the way for resumed trade subject to veterinary assessments and bilateral agreement. But the South African Feedlot Association has decided not to support imports of live cattle and beef from Namibia and Botswana, saying protection of South Africa's livestock industry and its international beef export markets takes precedence over the short-term benefits of imports.
The regional outbreak has also strained vaccine supplies. The Botswana Vaccine Institute has produced nearly 4.9 million doses of FMD vaccine this financial year for outbreak responses across southern Africa, with Botswana receiving nearly one million doses as the institute's third-largest customer.
FAQ
How much could the FMD outbreak cost Botswana's economy?
Between 0.8 and 1 percent of GDP, according to agricultural economist Patrick Malope, once lost exports, lower cattle prices and higher holding costs are counted.
How much has the government spent on FMD containment?
Approximately P97 million has been committed, redirecting resources from the Ministry of Agriculture's budget for other development initiatives, according to Minister Edwin Dikoloti.
Has Botswana resumed beef slaughtering and exports?
Yes. The BMC resumed slaughtering on 25 September 2026, and government has approved a renewed dispensation for live cattle and meat product exports, though South Africa's feedlot industry still refuses imports from Botswana and Namibia.